As we approach the heart of the 2025 hurricane season, residents of Florida must pay attention to what the forecast is signalling and take action. With the right preparation, the risks from Florida hurricanes can be managed far better. In this article, we’ll highlight the key elements of the NOAA forecast, explain how this relates to Florida, and provide practical steps for Florida disaster preparedness.
1. What the Forecast Says
According to NOAA’s 2025 outlook for the Atlantic basin, there is a 60% chance of an above–normal hurricane season, a 30% chance of near-normal, and just a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
Specifically, NOAA projects 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.
What does this mean for Florida hurricanes? While the forecast is for the entire Atlantic basin — including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean — it clearly means Florida must remain vigilant, because it only takes one storm hitting Florida to cause major impacts.
2. Why This Season Could Be More Active
Several indicators point to increased likelihood of stronger tropical activity:
Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin and Gulf of Mexico are warmer than average, offering more energy for storm formation.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a neutral or near-neutral phase, which tends to reduce wind shear and allow storms to intensify.
Overall, the combination of favourable oceanic and atmospheric conditions means the environment is more supportive of tropical storms and hurricanes than in a quieter season.
3. Implications for Florida Hurricanes
For Florida residents, this forecast underscores two key things:
Even if the number of storms matches the median, one Florida landfalling hurricane can be disastrous. This is why Florida disaster preparedness is critical.
The weak link is rarely a lack of warning — it’s the lack of preparation. Because Florida hurricanes often originate in the Gulf or the Atlantic and track toward the peninsula, you must treat this season seriously.
4. Florida Disaster Preparedness: What You Must Do
Here’s a checklist of preparedness steps for Florida residents:
Know your evacuation zone and local hurricane-evacuation routes. If you live in a coastal or low-lying area of Florida, you should have a plan.
Maintain a disaster kit with at least 7 days of water, non-perishable food, medication, batteries, flashlights, a first-aid kit, copies of important documents, and supplies for pets.
Secure your home: check roof and windows, trim trees, clear gutters, secure outdoor furniture. Florida hurricanes bring high winds and heavy rain—flooding is a major hazard.
Stay informed: sign up for local alerts, monitor the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and NOAA updates, and heed evacuation orders promptly.
Review insurance coverage: make sure your homeowner or renter policy covers wind damage and flooding (or get separate flood insurance), especially in Florida’s high-risk zones.
Prepare for a power outage and offline communications: Florida hurricanes often knock out power and telecommunications, so have backup plans.
5. Why You Should Act Now
The 2025 season forecast may not guarantee Florida will be hit — but it strongly suggests higher than normal odds of activity. And as mentioned, it only takes one hurricane making landfall in Florida to cause major disruption. Waiting until a watch or warning is issued is too late for many preparations. Better to be ready, and if nothing hits, you’ll have gained peace of mind.
